我就是愛拍照 wrote:
HTZ 我覺得到下次財報前，低點$5.5~$5.8 有機會看到。
高點$7 也有可能再碰到。
我還是等$5.9再來買比較爽。
今天盤後是AMD的法說會，
所以早上看了些網路上AMD的閒聊，
其中某位AMD大神談到他的投資：
Let's review previous FAD LTFM CAGRs:
2015: "Return to profitability in H2", followed by "consistent" and "improved" profitability. Despite having been a significant AMD investor since 1998, in 2015, having picked up "The Scent of Zen", I backed up the truck.
這些說法和HTZ那天在財報時的說法也滿接近的。
本來想把HTZ放一放的，看來還是要再持續研究一下HTZ。
把線圖拉出來，搞清楚上次大漲是為了什麼：
看日期是4/16/2025
查了一下新聞，原來是Bill Ackman 公佈了他的持股。
而且他居然還為了HTZ，向SEC申請延遲公告。
持股比例達到20%。
看起來他的成本應該在 $4元上下。
HTZ 目前市值20億美元，而股價$4元時，市值大約13億，
所以Ackman大概才投了2.6億美元。
對他185億的基金規模來說應該也不算什麼。
照他的說法：
1。關稅使車價上升，HTZ手上120億的車子升值了大概12億。
2。HTZ的經營目標是一台車一個月營收$1500，拆舊$300
3。目標股價 $30
$30 比我之前瞎猜的要高得多。不過他是看到2028/2029。
這也難說誰比較樂觀一點，看起來差不太多。
我認為明年Q1大概可能要先跌回去$5.5，甚到破 $5，
年中最多能摸到$8，年底前大概高點最多$10。
當然，HTZ的問題也還是很多：
1。負債高，淨值是負的
2。商譽為負向的，很多客戶覺得服務品質比不上Enterprise
3。競爭者不少：TURO（今年上市失敗），Uber/Lift這些其實也吃掉一些市場。
至於一些幻想/機會：
1。買下TURO （不太可能，沒錢，除非找到金主，如Ackman）
2。再和TSLA合作搞自動駕駛的出租車。TSLA如果真的要搞RoboTaxi，最終可能還是需要門市來處理合約/維修/充電等等的工作。HTZ如今會這樣，就和之前買太多TSLA電動車有關，所以對TSLA車子的保養維修也是最有經驗的公司
其實外在因素講再多，最重要的成敗還是在經營團隊手上。
目前看起來狀況還可以，Q3至少是轉虧為盈了。
如果能只比Ackman多付20%的成本，這買賣還是很可以的。
$5上下應該可以用力賭一把。
風險與機會並存吧，
想賺十倍，必然也有十倍風險。
Ackman 完整的理論在這裡：https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1912955549542744462?lang=en
Why does Bill Ackman like Hertz stock?
Ackman often posts long-form essays on social media to explain the rationale behind a particular Pershing Square investment. When it comes to Hertz, he sees the current tariff situation as an under-recognized tailwind for the company. Let's break down the math to better understand Ackman's logic.
Hertz operates a fleet of roughly 500,000 vehicles with an estimated value of $12 billion. Assuming that President Donald Trump's tariffs lead to an increase of 10% in used car prices, then Hertz's fleet essentially would gain $1.2 billion in value. That would be more than half of the entire current market value of the company.
Some notable assumptions about the future are built into Ackman's long-term forecast. At a high level, he is aligned with Hertz management's guidance that it will be able to generate $1,500 in revenue per vehicle per month, while maintaining its depreciation per unit in the range of $300 per car per month. These metrics are only modestly better than what Hertz is achieving today -- suggesting these targets are within reach.
Ackman suggests that by 2029, Hertz could be generating $2 billion in annual adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). By applying an EBITDA multiple of 7.5, Ackman derives a value of $15 billion for Hertz -- equating to a share price of about $30.
