RKLB- Rocket Lab 和 2021破產後的 Hertz,會是屌絲的逆襲嗎?

我就是愛拍照 wrote:
早上醒來七點十分,一...(恕刪)




現在是12點十分,過了兩個多小時,相比我下單時的 $285左右
股價跌了兩三元,PUT價格不只沒漲,倒是反而下跌了。
我就是愛拍照
拿到的權利金,還沒想出來要怎麼處理。不買股,拿來當生活費+學開飛機加上報稅(雖然預繳應該夠才對)其實也可以。
Income below 400% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) is a key benchmark for financial assistance, with a 2025 annual income limit of $62,604 for a single person ($5,217/month) or $127,720 for a family of four ($10,643/month) in the contiguous U.S.. This threshold qualifies individuals for maximum health insurance subsidies and premium tax credits

2026 是 $132,000

我都是弄到150%-200%之間
年金+個人戶頭股息..無資本利得

你如果控制在350%-400%之間保費不知道要多少?
但是如果是超過400%應該不便宜
不過還是要看你要選那種保險
我的是
42.28 / 65 / 211 / 440/ 562/ 569/ 659
七種不同保險可選..我是用65


這台車都先租後買了10年..都不知道要怎麼除鏡子上的結冰🤣🤣🤣星期一先去挖車..昨天去看眼科..跟瞎子開車差不多..左右兩邊的鏡子都結冰..提心吊膽靠左邊要換車道..好險沒事..右邊我有攝影機..全程開..真的不能開玩笑
昨天大意了..等檢查眼睛時趕緊查一下..後箱玻璃除霧紐按下去也同時會加熱鏡子除霜/冰真的是大意





去郵局丟包時
已經堆了一座小雪山

我就是愛拍照
今年北邊真冷。當年找到Qualcomm的工作,真的是運氣好。
想一想還是不要把錢放在那邊晾著比較好。
套個利看看有沒有機會:



先賣一百口 Call,再買一萬股HTZ。
財報是二月底,應該不太會有大事才對。
5.23-0.6=成本4.63 ,如果保持在 $5 以上,
5/4.63 =1.0799
放二十二天,有大約8%的報酬率,很夠了吧?

剩下七百多,補一股AMD,剛好1900股,
還有五百多,再隨便買點LNC:

tcwu
[拇指向上][拇指向上][拇指向上]都快追過我的75000股[笑到噴淚]還是已經超過?[笑到噴淚]
tcwu
財報是2/5不是2月底..所以我的2/13的PUT都不敢動.2手車價可能會漲..因為加拿大調漲出口鋁價.我拿股拿錢都行.當然最好是先拿錢後當天再拿股[笑到噴淚][笑到噴淚][笑到噴淚]
tcwu wrote:
你如果控制在350%-400%之間保費不知道要多少?
但是如果是超過400%應該不便宜

控制不住呀。
你看我昨天做的2027年到期的 20口 UNH,
如果股價高於 $250,明年收入(後年報稅)就四萬七了。
這些PUT加一加大約 13.9 萬。

如果LNC 到2027年還持有的話,還要加上LNC的股息:

tcwu
[笑到噴淚][笑到噴淚][笑到噴淚]寧可交稅也不要賠錢啊[拇指向上][拇指向上][拇指向上]去好市多2度就業?聽說他家的保險給得很好[拇指向上]
tcwu
目前2/20 HTZ $5的CALL成交110口..愛大獨佔100口[拇指向上]
tcwu wrote:
目前2/20 HTZ $5的CALL成交110口..愛大獨佔100口

今天成交量這麼低嗎?
我賣的時候看,買方 Bid 的口數有73口
加上五元是個整數關卡,2/20也是近月的正常結算日,
還以為一天會有上千口成交量。
想不到這麼低。

看了一下,又多了五口。
五口的話,價值 $300美元,夠一天工資了。
但是攤到20天的話,一天才 $15
只夠吃個熊貓快餐吧?

不過其實報酬率都是一樣的,大約一個月8%
資本兩千五,可以每天吃熊貓快餐
資本五萬,一個月六千,可以付房貸。




這感覺和當 Loan Shark 差不多。
Loan Shark 利息拿得爽,就怕貸款人倒帳或搞消失。
我們賣 Call 是怕股價跌成屎,「炒股炒成股東」
看一下UNH的分析。
這網路世界真不錯,看別人研究就好了,
自己都不用算,也不用在那邊找一堆資料。
你想要是八十年代,
你不得寫一堆信去找一堆公司要年報,
再一點點從幾百頁的財報中摳出你要的數據,
我看不請個秘書都不行。

tcwu wrote:

都快追過我的75000股 還是已經超過?

還沒呢,這個其實不算持股。
沒有心理準備要持有這一萬股。被買走的機會還是有的。
就算加上去也不到六萬一千股的樣子。

tcwu wrote:
財報是2/5不是2月底..所以我的2/13的PUT都不敢動.2手車價可能會漲..因為加拿大調漲出口鋁價.我拿股拿錢都行.當然最好是先拿錢後當天再拿股

哇累,我查錯了吧?
完蛋了



看來這一萬股要吞下去了。
8%報酬率應該是拿不到了。
可見市場也是預期財報出來會大跌一段。

tcwu wrote:
去好市多2度就業?聽說他家的保險給得很好

好市多有那麼好應徵上嗎?
我看也不見得。
然後至少一週要做20小時才有全職的福利吧?
那太累了。
不划算。
要去好市多工作,那我當初就繼續工作就好了,
幹嘛那麼麻煩?
上一個工作只是有點囉嗦而已,
其實一天工作也不過五六小時,沒什麼難度。
tcwu
HRZN[orz][orz][orz][orz]
tcwu
好像最少要上3天班才能有健保..萬一不是辦公室JOB是賣場人員問題是你站得住那麼久嗎?[笑到噴淚]
我就是愛拍照 wrote:
還沒呢,這個其實不算...(恕刪)


看到你的AI
我真的都笑出來
EPS$0.29

太好笑了
他媽的..我在西雅圖已經被AI騙過一次
要下車的站根本亂報..過了占我一看就知道完蛋錯過站牌


嘉信
Earnings

4th Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced 02/05/2026 before market open. With 8 analysts covering HTZ, the consensus EPS estimate is -$0.51, and the high and low estimates are -$0.41 and -$0.61, respectively.

我在FB看到好市多員工貼的
他一個月保費200有老婆有小孩
但是他做什麼不知道

我弟也"待"業中..不過他老婆有上班
而且我弟妹跟我侄兒公司都是公司付100%的醫療保險費(台灣在美國的子公司)


HTZ期權交易量都超低的
我那750口怎麼賣出的我都懷疑人生
其實是滾出來的
2/13是搞飛機搞出來
原本是2/6號...2/5號財報後..2/13到期時有可能變成只拿到現金拿不到股
如果2手車價持續漲
其他幾個指標還不錯
就算EPS是負的還是有希望
我就是怕怕怕..才不敢滾到12月去
tcwu
XD我也看成HTZ原來是HRZN[orz][orz][orz]還好我之前記得是2月初..而且EPS是負的[笑到噴淚]
我就是愛拍照
我的辦公桌旁有張床,我躺在床上打的,螢幕距離眼睛1.5公尺,沒看清楚。
我就是愛拍照 wrote:


這一百口,在Fidelity 的 Active Trader Pro 裡面看不到,
但在網頁版倒是有。
這Active Trader Pro看得到今天全部各個執行價位的主要交易,
但資料不全。
網頁版是有詳細資料,不過要各個價位分別去看,
而且不像ATP上面有精確交易的時間。




tcwu wrote:
如果2手車價持續漲
其他幾個指標還不錯

你這個結論是看哪一個報告的?
我剛剛找了個報告,感覺狀況有點混亂:

以Hertz 這些公司賣最多的Compact/Mid Size/SUV 來看,都是跌的。
不過租金在十二月倒是漲的。

manheim used vehicle value index december 2025 trends
Key Metrics

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to December 2024. The December index is up 0.1% month over month. The long-term average monthly move for December is flat, showing no change from month to month.
Non-adjusted wholesale vehicle prices are now up 0.5% year over year, although they declined 0.4% against November 2025. The long-term average monthly move in non-adjusted values is an increase of 0.3% in December.



Expert Perspective — Jeremy Robb, Interim Chief Economist, Cox Automotive



“Consumer spending trends showed signs of a slowdown in December, as affordability concerns caused many to pull back on the spending reins, translating to depreciation trends catching up a bit in wholesale markets over the month. As we moved into the holiday period, we saw seasonal patterns in used retail sales slowing down, while new retail sales increased against November trends but remained lower compared to 2024.

Consumer sentiment rose throughout December, but five consecutive weeks of lower year-over-year consumer spending kept the pace of sales in check. At Manheim, the year ended with days’ supply rising over the month, as is seasonally normal during the year-end holiday period. As we move into 2026, a few positive indicators are emerging: New and used auto loan rates have fallen to the lowest level in a year, and consumers will soon see increased tax refunds hit their wallets. As this plays out, we are expecting to see stronger demand in the auto market as the year gets underway.”

MMR Prices, Retention & Sales Conversion

。MMR prices for the Three-Year-Old Index declined 0.9% in December.
。MMR retention averaged 99.6% in December, up 60 basis points year over year, and up 0.7 percentage points from November.
。Sales conversion was 56.8% for the period, 4.6 percentage points higher than the most recent three-year average, and up 4.4 percentage points from November.

Takeaway: MMR prices for the Three-Year-Old Index declined a bit more than is typical for this period, as depreciation trends caught up a little to the long-term averages. MMR retention increased moderately and remains seasonally normal for this time of year. Meanwhile, sales conversion indicates a strengthening of demand, as the metric held higher than usual for this time of year.

Segment Performance: Year-Over-Year Price Changes



Overall market prices were up marginally from December 2024, led by the luxury segment and electric vehicles, while compact cars and pickups recorded the most significant declines.





Takeaway: Most vehicle segments remain lower against year-earlier levels; however, we continue to see the luxury segment outperforming the overall market. We have observed the strength in this segment for several months, as it is more influenced by higher EV prices. Compact cars, midsize cars and pickups continue to see larger declines compared to 2024.

EV versus Non-EV Index



EVs: The Electric Vehicle (EV) Index was up 2.5% year over year but down 0.1% from November.
Non-EVs: The Non-EV Index was up 0.4% year over year and also higher by 0.1% from November.




Takeaway: With the expiration of government-backed EV incentives, prices moderated, but remain higher than in 2024, when EV values saw much more depreciation in the first half of the year.

Wholesale Supply and Rental Prices



Wholesale supply: At the end of December, wholesale days’ supply rose to 31.7 days, lower by 1.6 days year over year but higher by 1.1 days compared to November.
Rental prices: Prices for rental vehicles are higher by 2.7% year over year as they increased in December, rising by 5.2% from November. Rental values on a non-seasonally adjusted basis are 2.9% above 2024’s level and rose 3.6% in December, driven by lower average mileage, which was down almost 15% against December 2024.

Takeaway: Before the pandemic, wholesale vehicle days’ supply averaged 36 days at the end of December, typically rising into year-end as the holiday calendar impacts the pace of sales. In 2025, wholesale supply rose at year-end, as is seasonally normal given the holiday period.


還有十一月的報告,其中十月和十一月的二手車價也是下跌的:


Used‑Vehicle Inventory Hits New 2025 High as December Begins

tcwu
赫茲自己賣車不透過標售賣車可以增加利潤..2手車價12月應是有小漲..我是看CPI那的公告
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