RKLB- Rocket Lab 和 2021破產後的 Hertz,會是屌絲的逆襲嗎?

pigstand wrote:
拍照大不考慮維持一個緊急預備金?

這是個奇妙的問題。
你覺得應該是多少?
如果是半年的生活費,那當然是有。
如果是2%以上,那顯然是沒有。
我就是愛拍照 wrote:
根據之前對 LNC ...(恕刪)


可能要看20/30年的才更準..
不過還是要看保單的term是怎麼分佈.
平均到期日/死亡率都要計算
如果算出是22.5年..那20年的利率就更重要
車險很簡單不是6個月就是1年期不像壽險年金險都是長年期


租車業的年收好像更很好估算
擁用車數
出租率
平均租車收入
營運成本
賣車回收
資本利息
加加減減就能推算出來
HTZ那些metrics非常重要..星期四早上就知道

美東又要大雪
長榮已經取消台美桃園/JFK的班機
租車業大概也受到影響

我1999年在NYC面試完也卡在機場回不了麻州中部
只好先住旅館..那時沒手機
隔天還是先飛回波士頓
再從波士頓搭火車回中部
叫計程車去機場取車
我就是愛拍照 wrote:
你覺得應該是多少?

我目前是配置未來1年的可預測支出,放在台幣定存跟活存中。
我就是愛拍照
我覺得在沒有槓桿的情況下,我最慘也只是在低檔賣個1%就夠用了,有沒有實在無關痛癢。需要時再賣也不一定都賣在低點,也是有機會賣在高點的。
tcwu
[拇指向上][拇指向上][拇指向上]
剛剛把稅表初步填完
要再仔細看一下
cash app 設計不是很優
還是我英文太爛?
不看最後稅表數字還懂不清楚到底是在問什麼碗糕
不過是免前我就加減用
已經被TurboTax吃了不少錢


沒想到今年聯邦稅沒有健康保險計算
2025我也不用補交或是退稅
去年實際保費支出15*12=180
今年是65*12=780
2027大概要1K附近吧?
等川普下台換民主黨總統..保費才可能會降低
還不知道有多少人在賭一把
沒買健康保險
高退保率對那些醫療保險公司影響會有多大?





州稅3K多的股息要交5%
聯邦我是窮人股息免稅
我就是愛拍照
[拇指向上][拇指向上][拇指向上]記得我以前第一次報稅時,都是去郵局拿1040表,填一下就完事了。W-2,租房子,單身,啥都沒有,就是爽。含看文件解說,30分鐘就報完了。現在報久了,大概要二~五天。
我就是愛拍照
我不用TurboTax不行呀,交易報告要填到死。看了一下有好幾百筆。雖然說理論上好像也沒要求說每一筆都要填的樣子。但有用TT的話,就有記錄,以後萬一被查稅,才不會有問題。
今天HTZ 和LNC 都大跌。
AMD 跌兩趴已經算小跌的了

今天看了看,決定還是省事一點,
不能太貪心。
把所有HTZ 明年一月 $5.5 的Call 賣一賣。
不少錢吔,一口有 $95左右。
大約五鳥口,就有五萬了。
算一算如果被執行,大概都有 40% 的獲利。
如果HTZ 跌到死,那我的成本也能降到 $4.1左右
總成本可能只剩下$20萬左右。

當然AMD的Option 也是繼續賣。
拿到的錢,大部份都買了LNC,
也有一小部份買了HTZ,然後再賣Option,再買HTZ。。。。









tcwu
看得眼花撩亂..人壽保險股今天都倒..你前面看的JXN也倒..不過猜來猜去猜不到..PFE反倒是漲..[orz]
我就是愛拍照
不用眼花撩亂,全部都是一樣的交易,除了AMD的週選擇權,就是賣HTZ 明年一月 $5.5 的 Call,拿到的權利金,80%都去買LNC,其他小部份買HTZ。
我就是愛拍照 wrote:
人壽保險股今天都倒..你前面看的JXN也倒..不過猜來猜去猜不到







今天是JXN 開財報。
除了最後一點,其他的看不出來有什麼大的問題?
另外還有一家,更小的 F&G,市值三十幾億而已,
大概LNC的一半,上週五收盤後開財報。

不過看來看去,可能是 Yield Curve Compression 才是元兇:

Yield Curve Compression: Declining long-dated bond yields are compressing the yield curve, which is less advantageous for companies in the annuity and lending business


另外一個跌得一樣慘的是KKR:

KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) stock dropped significantly on Monday, February 23, 2026, falling over 8% due to a sharp price target downgrade by UBS Group (from
to
) and broader investor anxiety surrounding private-credit market liquidity. Increased bearish sentiment, with high put option activity ahead of upcoming earnings, further pressured the share price.


美國金融股全部大跌,台灣相反,金融股大漲:





Positive Points

Jackson Financial Inc (NYSE:JXN) surpassed its financial targets for 2025, achieving record sales and distribution.

The company generated over $1 billion in free capital for the second consecutive year, supporting growth and capital return.

A strategic partnership with TPG was closed, expected to accelerate growth in spread-based business and provide future flexibility.

Retail annuity sales reached nearly $20 billion, the highest since 2019, with strong growth in RILA and fixed index annuities.

Jackson Financial Inc (NYSE:JXN) increased its quarterly dividend by nearly 13%, reflecting strong capital generation and shareholder returns.

Negative Points

Net income was impacted by annual assumption reviews and net hedge results, leading to a GAAP pretax loss.

Variable annuity net outflows remained elevated due to factors like an aging policyholder base and older sales vintages.

Higher-than-expected surrenders and market volatility posed challenges to capital generation.

The annual actuarial assumptions review resulted in a $360 million unfavorable impact due to updated policyholder behavior assumptions.

Despite strong sales, the company anticipates it will take a couple of years to achieve flat net flows due to ongoing variable annuity outflows.




Positive Points

F&G Annuities & Life Inc (NYSE:FG) achieved record assets under management (AUM) before flow reinsurance of $73.1 billion, up 12% over the previous year.

The company reported strong sales performance with $14.6 billion in gross sales for the year, including $9 billion from core products like indexed annuities and indexed universal life.

The investment portfolio is high-quality, with 97% of fixed maturities being investment grade, and credit-related impairments remaining stable at 8 basis points.

F&G's fee income from flow reinsurance grew by 37% to $56 million for the full year, indicating a successful shift towards more fee-based earnings.

The company maintained a strong capital position with an estimated risk-based capital ratio of approximately 430%, above their 400% target.

Negative Points

Alternative investment income underperformed, with a return of approximately 7% in the fourth quarter compared to the 10% long-term expected return.

The company faces potential headwinds in 2026 from fluctuating bond prepayments, which could impact variable investment income.

There is a risk of quarterly variability due to elevated annuity terminations, which could pressure near-term spreads.

F&G's stock is trading at a significant discount to book value, reflecting market concerns over credit losses despite a strong investment portfolio.

The company anticipates a decrease in AUM by $1.9 billion following the sale of its Bermuda-based legal entity, which could impact future earnings.




這家 GuruFocus News的新聞之前倒是沒有仔細看過。
現在看了一下,感覺應該是AI 生產的文章吧?

Positive Points

Lincoln National Corp (NYSE:LNC) reported a 31% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating income for the fourth quarter, marking the highest level in four years.

The company achieved its sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted operating earnings growth, demonstrating strong performance across its business segments.

Annuity sales were strong in 2025, with total volumes up 25%, driven by a diversified product mix and strategic market positioning.

Group Protection segment delivered a record year with a 16% increase in full-year earnings, supported by premium growth and disciplined pricing.

The company has made significant progress in optimizing its operating model, creating a more efficient and scalable organization with sustained expense discipline.

Negative Points

The competitive landscape in the RILA market is intensifying, which may impact future sales growth in this segment.

Variable annuity net outflows continued, reflecting ongoing challenges in retaining business amidst higher equity markets.

Retirement Plan Services experienced net outflows of approximately $1 billion for the quarter, driven by participant withdrawals and plan terminations.

The company anticipates sequential pressure on annuities earnings in the first quarter of 2026 due to fewer fee days and resetting of favorable mortality experience.

Despite improvements, the Life Insurance segment still faces challenges in rebuilding sales momentum and optimizing free cash flow.
我是油管看到的
也沒求證
下一波的金融風暴
可能是車貸跟商業貸款(BDC類)

LNC我是苦在沒錢可以買

HTZ今天吃鱉中
也還好
19500股沒買回均價$4.39
等看看
不然就是先買AGNC(MBS)
本想AGNC一魚兩吃
先買股然後賣CALL
但2/27除息
2/26可能會被提前CALL
賺不到股息
一股買11.30
CALL賣$11可以賣0.28一口(剛看)
股息0.12
怕股價回漲一點股息就賺不到
這又是馬後炮
昨晚真的很想買400股AMD
那時股價197
念頭衝動但不敢行動

人家是搞投資
我怎麼把股市弄成好像在賭場一樣

昨晚這一把下去可以進帳快$8K
還是做夢比較快
johanneschuang
買到是運氣,沒買到是正常
tcwu
我不敢賭蘇媽啦..對產業完全不了解..而且這一把要8萬美金賭太大[orz]買少也沒意思[笑到噴淚]
tcwu wrote:
昨晚真的很想買400股AMD
那時股價197
念頭衝動但不敢行動

現在才$210,漲的比我想像中的少,
還好沒漲破 $220
太可惡了,先跌一大段,再騙你賣 Call

倒是LNC,昨天我總共買了 1266 股,
想說一次殺10%,總該有點反彈了吧?
想不到今天仍然還有低點 $34.61。
實在難以理解到底是誰在出貨?
砍在這個點還要有賺錢,至少也要持有快一年了吧?
如果是機構,砍在這裡,要賺到超過的大盤績效幾乎不可能。


tcwu
LNC我當"高利率"國債看..我只怕砍息[orz]股息不砍我都沒在怕[笑到噴淚]
tcwu
AMD早盤漲快$20[笑到噴淚]LNC應該是過度反應吧..這種跌法太誇張[大哭]
剛剛出去運動差不多半小時
兒子女兒都不在家只好自己動手
出了一身汗不過還不能去洗澡正在緊要關頭買回
太難猜了
要是早知道一早就全買在四塊四毛
早上第一把只買1千股@4.40
然後還加減賣到$4.52






我就是愛拍照
這麼多雪,真是有點累。
tcwu
波士頓學校今天還放假..東岸機場星期天/星期一大都關閉[orz]
文章分享
評分
評分
複製連結
請輸入您要前往的頁數(1 ~ 586)

今日熱門文章 網友點擊推薦!