min9821 wrote:
日本是沒有膽子出兵的，
沒有了日本軍隊，精於盤算的美軍敢不敢打就是一個問題，
美國和日本都不會實質出兵.
這事可能得反過來看,
老美如果不出兵,或者有限度派兵「維安」,
日本還自個兒瞎起鬨嗎?
台海戰役的問題在:想要耗多久?
美國可以跟耗很久,
但是前題是不能有美國人戰死...............
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Panchrotal wrote:
台灣報紙挑好聽的寫
CSIS是很專業的兵推
假定了四種可能情境
台灣報紙只刊登
對美國有利的條件下死三千多
但是對美國不利的條件下
損失4航母43驅逐艦15核潛艇
半個美國海軍沒了
中共仍然打贏
明明就是五個情境，整份報告的開頭都有寫。
（https://www.naval.com.br/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Wargaming-a-chinese-invasion-of-Taiwan.pdf）
Base scenario, Pessimistic Scenarios, Optimistic Scenarios, Taiwan Stands Alone, Ragnarok。
才不是對美國有利的條件下才死三千多，而是在base scenario。
對美國不利的條件下，中國根本沒有贏，
自己貼出的table 4上面很清楚有秀出base scearios模擬的結果，
要中國贏就是要到有China victory or Stalemate Leaning China的地方，
為什麼不貼出table 5，pessimistic scenarios的結果?
因為不敢告訴大家對美國不利的模擬，中國依舊沒有贏。
這個小粉紅就喜歡掛羊頭賣狗肉，
說半個美國海軍沒了，但不敢說是在哪個情境? 是Ragnarok!
Ragnarok Operational Outcomes:
As expected, Ragnarok ended in a PLA victory.248 Without having to worry
about U.S. forces in Japan, the PLA was able to focus its land-attack missiles on Guam, negating is as
a base. Despite the absence of U.S. bombers, the Chinese amphibious fleet still took a large number
of casualties from ASCMs on Taiwan and U.S. SSNs infiltrating into the straits. By the time these
attackers were out of ammunition or attrited, they had reduced the amphibious fleet to one-third of its
beginning strength. However, the absence of U.S. fighter/attack aircraft allowed the Chinese to focus
their aircraft on supporting the ground invasion. This allowed the PLA to make steady progress ashore
and eventually compensate for destroyed amphibious ships with captured ports and airports.
The last serious challenge to the invasion came from an unsuccessful attack by the massed U.S. fleet.
After three weeks of conflict, a U.S. fleet of 29 cruisers and destroyers, two carriers, and 10 SSNs
approached Taiwan. Under withering fire from Chinese submarines, air-launched ASCMs, and surface
ships, the US fleet was largely destroyed without relieving Taiwan. At this point, the game was called.
