mykukoc wrote:
MVP Gilgeous...(恕刪)
NBA 2026~27 年度獎項預測 (1)：新人王，天王群起 !
幾天前 ESPN 網站上，NBA Summer Forecast 2026-27: Projecting rookie MVPs, future impact 的文章發布了 ( NBA Insiders Aug 18, 2026 )。
Top lottery picks have already offered a glimpse of what they're capable of during summer league. Washington Wizards No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa tied the record for most points scored by a No. 1 pick in his summer league debut by putting up 27 points against No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson and the Utah Jazz. The race for Rookie of the Year already appears to be shaping up to be a close one, with other top rookies such as Caleb Wilson, Brayden Burries and Darius Acuff Jr. looking ready to make an immediate impact next season.
沒錯，大物世代開啟的篇章，格外的引起各隊注意。裡面的投票很多，包含了：
Which top pick has the fastest path to becoming an NBA superstar ?
1. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 5 votes
2. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 4 votes
3. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 3 votes
4. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 1 vote
Who is most likely to make an All-NBA team first ?
1. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 7 votes
2. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 4 votes
T3. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 1 vote
T3. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 1 vote
Which lottery pick will be selected to an All-Star team first ?
T1. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 4 votes
T1. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 4 votes
3. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 3 votes
4. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 2 votes
Which top rookie has the highest long-term ceiling ?
1. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 6 votes
2. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 3 votes
3. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 2 votes
4. Mikel Brown Jr. (No. 6 pick, Brooklyn Nets): 1 vote
Which lottery pick will have the biggest impact on winning this season ?
1. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 5 votes
2. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 4 votes
T3. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 1 vote
T3. Morez Johnson Jr. (No. 9 pick, Dallas Mavericks): 1 vote
T3. Yaxel Lendeborg (No. 11 pick, Golden State Warriors): 1 vote
Who will prove to be the biggest draft steal ?
1. Brayden Burries (No. 10 pick, Milwaukee Bucks): 6 votes
2. Yaxel Lendeborg (No. 11 pick, Golden State Warriors): 3 votes
3. Darius Acuff Jr. (No. 7 pick, Sacramento Kings): 2 votes
T4. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 1 vote
T4. Kingston Flemings (No. 8 pick, Atlanta Hawks): 1 vote
Which rookie landed in the best situation ?
1. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 3 votes
2. Morez Johnson Jr. (No. 9 pick, Dallas Mavericks): 3 votes
3. Aday Mara (No. 12 pick, Oklahoma City Thunder): 2 votes
4. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 1 vote
Which of the top four picks will win an NBA championship first ?
1. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 5 votes
2. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 4 votes
T3. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 2 votes
T3. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 2 votes
上面的投票，我最感到意外的是最後一項，因為，要在這四支球隊 ( 爵士、灰熊、巫師和公牛 ) 中選一支奪冠隊伍，簡直比登天還難。就在馬刺、雷霆以及七六人正興起的年代，這幾年要看到今年的菜鳥在未來奪冠，大概只有轉隊一途。
很有趣的是，Let's end on a note of caution: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Chet Holmgren are the only top four picks to win a championship with the team that drafted them in the past 10 seasons. -- Ben Golliver。Jaylen Brown 也是花了 8 年，Jayson Tatum 用 7 年，只有 Chet Holmgren 沾 SGA 的光，才用 2 年。
好，回到新人王主題，一開始，我覺得灰熊隊的 Cameron Boozer 和國王隊的 Darius Acuff Jr. 機會最大，但經過夏季聯賽與後續的評估，我會認為巫師隊的狀元 AJ Dybantsa 會成為新人王的。
首先，足夠的球權以及多元全面是 AJ Dybantsa 的優勢，巫師隊雖有 Anthony Davis 與 Trae Young 這兩位全明星，但 Dybantsa 能在室配性上，拿到足夠的攻守數據，不只是得分而已。我看好 AJ Dybantsa 有機會朝 20 分、5 籃板、5 助攻的全方位表現去發展，成為新人王。
至於 Darryn Peterson 呢 ? 我覺得也是有希望，但礙於全隊可能沒有齊心合力的作戰凝聚力，多名戰將多想拿到應有的尊重，這會讓 Darryn Peterson 顯得是單打獨鬥的可能性極高。倘若 Peterson 越獨，不管球隊勝負與隊上大咖的奇檬子，他有可能在數據上大躍進，但，球隊的氣氛就會很危險。Darryn Peterson 若聰明點，應該是往扶助隊上要角，擔任陣中的支援組，在實質上推進球隊戰績，切勿成為打鐵王。
至於，隊上基本上是無全明星的 Cameron Boozer 就是穩，15 分、7 籃板是基本的樓地板，但不敢說天花板能多高。我會認為灰熊隊的教練 Tuomas Iisalo 就是想打造均衡的團隊戰力，全隊整季有可能又是 8 ~ 10 人的上場時間都是 20 分鐘上下，在這樣的挑戰下，我覺得 Cameron Boozer 想拿新人王就得看機運。倘若，灰熊隊意外的成為西區黑馬，闖入附加賽， Cameron Boozer 的數據高達 19 分 、9 籃板，還是有可能。
NBA Insiders，Aug 26, 2026, 07:00 AM ET更新：Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?
1. Cameron Boozer, Memphis Grizzlies (No. 3 pick): 61 points
2. Darryn Peterson, Utah Jazz (No. 2 pick): 56 points
3. AJ Dybantsa, Washington Wizards (No. 1 pick): 54 points
4. Caleb Wilson, Chicago Bulls (No. 4 pick): 32 points
5. Darius Acuff Jr., Sacramento Kings (No. 7 pick): three points
