美財報季有望延續企業盈餘的上修循環，支撐台股維持中長期多頭，但短線漲幅偏大，震盪風險相對升高。台積電與主要 AI 供應鏈在本次財報季皆釋出強勁展望，帶動市場對台股 2026 年企業獲利預估由原本的年增 20% 上修至 31%，顯示 AI 週期動能進一步強化。同時，AI 相關訂單能見度已延伸至 2027 年，支撐科技股獲利連續四年維持高速成長，突破過往硬體產業獲利高增速通常僅能維持 2-3 年的慣性模式。
</section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; box-sizing: inherit; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.7; font-family: Lato, "Noto Sans TC", "Pingfang TC", "Microsoft Jhenghei", Arial, VideoJS, sans-serif; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; vertical-align: initial; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify; overflow-wrap: break-word;"></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; box-sizing: inherit; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.7; font-family: Lato, "Noto Sans TC", "Pingfang TC", "Microsoft Jhenghei", Arial, VideoJS, sans-serif; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; vertical-align: initial; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify; overflow-wrap: break-word;">台股目前指數已較年線偏離達 30%，來到歷史高檔水準。在此位置，市場對任何意外事件的敏感度明顯提高。
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