但是 看到新手受傷 也是於心不忍
所以來這裡補充.... 其實也不算是歪樓
對象也不是老江湖的股海大... 是對投資到懷疑人生的新手... 看下去就知道了
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很多人 忽略了事情的偶然性 只以結果來評價決策的優劣 -- 先看這個故事
恭喜你！你贏了俄羅斯輪盤
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根據Google
Livermore 自殺時 沒錯 是還有$5M"資產" <<<< 2018/11/12補充 這裡可能錯的
但那是不能做交易的錢 他被禁止交易了:
https://investorplace.com/t247_247trader/what-you-can-learn-from-the-demise-of-jesse-livermore/
$5M, "Still a considerable amount of purchasing power, but there was no trading capital left, and the Board of Trade had suspended his membership. He wasn’t happy after that..."
$5M資產是年金 --
1917他已經預測 他會失敗 所以先存年金 :
"In 1917, with great foresight, Jesse Livermore had bought $800,000 worth of annuities. His objective was to ensure his family had an income in case he lost everything in the markets."
據Google說
他是破產的 (至少法律上是)
https://jesse-livermore.com/jesse-livermore-timeline.html
1934 -- Jesse Livermore is bankrupt. He has lost his entire trading fortune.
槓桿開很大 最後被抬出場 還欠$5M
https://blog.topsteptrader.com/lessons-from-jesse-livermore
"he wanted to climb the mountain again..."
"He was wiped out. Not only did Livermore not have a dollar to his name, but he was in debt $5 million, roughly $70 million in today's dollars, to various stock brokers who advanced him money to trade. "
(所以才被禁止交易?) (年金是受破產法保護 所以債主沒能動)
身後沒錢留給小孩
https://www.businessinsider.com/the-life-of-jesse-livermore-2015-7#and-in-the-same-year-livermore-shot-himself-in-the-coatroom-of-the-sherry-netherland-hotel-in-new-york-22222227
"He left nearly no money to his children."
自殺前一天 最後一張照片
當時他對拍照的人說:
" it’s the last picture you’ll take because tomorrow I’m going away for a long, long time."
Wrong Trade --> Wiped out --> Banned from trade --> more Depressed -> Suicide
為什麼賠$100M那麼多? --- 因為他不認賠:
https://jesse-livermore.com/losing-money.html
"It may have been Jesse Livermore’s misfortune to enter highly leveraged trades just prior to suffering a debilitating black dog. The trades could have turned sour while Livermore’s mind was elsewhere. Livermore was notorious as a loner. The losing trades could not be closed except with his authority, yet he was not in a fit state to give that authority – or perhaps in his depressed mental state he did not care that he was losing money – perhaps he even welcomed it.
It’s hard to believe the Jesse Livermore portrayed in Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator, would have permitted himself to betray his own trading principles to the extent that he would lose $100 million. It seems plausible that the man who lost the money was an alter ego – a Mr. Hyde who tore apart the achievements of Livermore’s more usual Dr. Jekyll persona. Six years later, Jesse’s Mr. Hyde won the final battle. Jesse, suffering another deep depression, took his own life."
事後 他才在書中提醒: 根據他的交易系統不攤平要停損...要停損...要停損...
(請注意那書是破產後 才寫的 是後見之明...白話文就是"早知道....")
個人認為 就投資而言 關人生總帳的時候 他是投資失敗的 至少他自己也是這樣認為
"in his suicide note he describes his life as a “failure”"
問: 如何投資成為百萬富翁 --> 答: 很簡單 從億萬開始做就容易多了
$100M --> $5M 賠了$95M 破產 不能翻身 還能說是成功?
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以上Livermore歷史 是否正確 並不是我的重點
而是那個俄羅斯輪盤故事 -- Livermore... 只是另一個例子---
(今天打字太多了 明天再寫完...)
-- 2018/11/12補充 ---
根據 2015 這本書 Livermore死後清算 他是負$350,000. 沒有$5M
https://www.amazon.com/Jesse-Livermore-Plunger-America-Short/dp/0990619915/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1541971555&sr=8-3&keywords=jesse+livermore&dpID=51dwGpgKZ1L&preST=_SY291_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_&dpSrc=srch
http://option-wizard.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-tragic-end-of-jesse-livermore.html
Biographer Rubython put his final, official, accounted-for net worth at minus $350,000.
他1934破產後 基本上是靠他老婆 Harriett -- 據說她前4任丈夫都是自殺 留下大批遺產 -- 但Harriett 富有 無誤
想要東山再起 但環境法令已改 以前很多炒作手法已變成是違法 時不我予....
1929 - 做空 押$450M over 100 companies... 賺$100M
1930 - 翻多
1931 - 空頭市場中續多
1932 - 空頭市場 Dow跌到41. 18個月內損失$40M.
1933 - Dow 41漲到80後又翻多. 在年底前 把1929賺的$100M 全部輸掉
1934 - 第四次破產. 倒欠$5M.
1935 - 1936 想東山再起 有賺一點錢 還了80萬的稅 是唯一亮點 其他就沒了 沒了
1939 - 從1934到1939 總共嘗試7次 都失敗
第四次破產後 想東山再起的新聞
交易SOP Livermore的河圖洛書 看過1940那版的書 應該懂
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改天補充1929歷史 如何玩"俄羅斯輪盤" 一週左右賺$100M
