難道市場這麼不值錢???
個人積分：0分
文章編號：8545630
個人積分：1分
文章編號：8545734
個人積分：13分
文章編號：8545865
個人積分：64分
文章編號：8545881
poolchady wrote:
老實說，發文止今三天，我更肯定了，大家還是全面性悲觀。
我從不猜底，只認合理價位及超跌價位。
即使是以「forecast」EPS本益比來看，台股還是找得到一大把超跌的股票。
避開「以外銷接單為主」的公司，找出體質完善且目前股價低於淨值的，大膽買入。
當指數已跌到五千出頭，大家還在測四千五、四千二，那不是猜底是什麼？
只要股價超跌，買著放著二、三年一定賺。
大膽入市，我笑了。
嗯！！ 長線投資喔.... 有所本就好 , 加油吧！！ 股市的未來就看您的了.
跌幅縮小成3.5％, 政府果然沒步了, 看來明天應該一價到底.
poolchady大大記得多買一些嘿！！也記得買著要放著二、三年, 不要被洗出去了....
**免責聲明：本文所載資料與言論僅供參考，並不構成投資建議，本人對使用該資料與言論所導致的結果概不承擔任何責任。**
個人積分：1分
文章編號：8546271
個人積分：20分
文章編號：8548498
個人積分：0分
文章編號：8548567
個人積分：1分
文章編號：8548741
個人積分：0分
文章編號：8548742
個人積分：0分
文章編號：8550848
The first step in recovery is admitting you have a problem. The carnage on Wall Street suggests investors have taken that step -- accepting the reality that the economy is in or headed for a recession, possibly a severe one.
The next step, which many people are loath to face, is figuring out what to do with their now sharply diminished investment dollars.
History would suggest that, for some investors, the stock market might be an attractive target despite the natural temptation to flee. That sounds downright crazy right now, considering the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in free-fall, having plunged 40% from its all-time high a year ago.
The Dow tumbled 18% last week, the biggest one-week decline in the average's 112-year history.
But past recessions show that stocks typically suffer the most before the economic downturn begins and start to recover at some point after it begins.
Lessons of the Past
Each of the past six recessions has been accompanied by a bear market, with the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index losing, on average, 31%. By that measure, the stock market's current decline -- with the S&P 500 down 43% from its peak -- is already worse than usual.
But stocks lost only 3%, on average, between the start and end dates of those recessions, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Stocks gained, on average, 6% during the six months after the recessions ended. That suggests buying and holding stocks during a recession is not a bad idea.
The NBER defines a recession as a long-lasting, widespread, "significant" decline in economic activity. The NBER often makes its determination well after a recession has begun -- and sometimes after it has ended.
[lost years chart]
For investors, each recession is different. The 2001 recession, for example, was accompanied by a prolonged bear market, in which the S&P 500 fell 49% in total, including an 8% decline during the recession. The market didn't hit bottom until nearly a year after the recession ended, and then went through several volatile months before a recovery took hold.
Stocks fell 23% during the 1973-1975 recession, representing a big chunk of their total 48% decline in that era's bear market.
The current bear market is quickly catching up to those in terms of severity. But there are some key differences that suggest a bottom might be nearing.
Before the 2001 recession, the dot-com boom had left stocks wildly overvalued. When the bear market began in March 2000, the ratio of the S&P 500 stocks' prices to their past year's earnings -- a closely watched measure of market value -- was nearly 33, according to research firm Birinyi Associates. Today, the S&P 500 trades at about 16 times trailing earnings -- roughly its historical average.
Before and during the 1973-1975 recession, interest rates were in the rafters, making savings accounts and bonds more attractive than stocks. Today, the Federal Reserve's target interest rate is just 1.5%, theoretically making stocks much more attractive.
Caution Still in Order
But the current bear market and economic turmoil have their own unique features that should probably keep investors cautious for a while. The global financial system is in the grips of a crisis not seen since the Great Depression. Investors have little idea what will fix the problem and aren't sure policy makers know, either.
Investors also are unsure how much damage has been done to the economy by a credit crunch that has intensified in recent weeks to a credit freeze, making it difficult for companies to do business and for consumers to borrow money for spending. The market is already priced for a recession, but no one knows for sure how long the recession will last or how deep it will go.
"That's why we're seeing such big corrections and high volatility," says Neil Michael, head of quantitative strategies at SPA Exchange Traded Funds.
Policy makers around the globe have all their guns trained on the current problem, and most observers expect them to avert a depression, which is essentially an unusually severe and long-lasting recession. That's one reason why it's probably too late to sell stocks now, if investors have already ridden them this far down.
Still, it is virtually impossible to know how much corporate profits will suffer in the months and quarters to come. That's one reason many analysts recommend investors stay defensive. Among stocks, that means holding companies that can make money regardless of the economic climate, particularly makers of consumer staples such as canned food and toothpaste.
The Case for Bonds
When the credit crunch begins to ease, high-grade corporate bonds could be attractive. Investors have fled from any credit-related risk and, as a result, the bonds' prices are very low and their yields very high.
"In an environment where we have uncertainty on earnings and we have a stock market not table-pounding cheap, the bond market is offering a very competitive alternative," says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
Stocks of companies in emerging markets such as China and India have been pounded even harder than U.S. stocks, a trend that could reverse sharply when the tide finally turns. Right now, however, even the bravest and deepest-pocketed investors aren't jumping into such investments. Some observers warn the time for taking bigger risks might not arrive until mid-2009.
"A large number of assets are extremely cheap," says Mark Cliffe, a London economist with Dutch financial-services firm ING. "But they could get cheaper."
