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個人積分：24264分
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我愛Keroro wrote:
來源 蘋果新聞女股神(恕刪)
跟著木頭姐賭，最簡單的方法就是買她的 ETF
2019年初，我兒子，女兒都會從 ARK 的投資組合裡找股票。
兩個人都買了特斯拉股票。
我相信很多新一代的投資者還是會參考ARK 的選股。
木頭姐的觀念很新，雖然有些極端，但作法看法是前後一致的，並不會隨著市場波動起舞。
有些觀念真的很有見解，看得很遠，雖然不一定實現，但是道理是説得通的。也值得思考。
OakTree Howard Marks 在他最新的 Memos 裡，花了相當大的篇幅在思考木頭姐的看法，木頭姐依然是木頭姐，並沒有褪色。
Howard Marks Memos 摘錄：
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Inflation/Deflation
I’ve written extensively on the subject of inflation of late, especially in Thinking About Macro four months ago. Since our knowledge of the future is so limited, there’s little for me to add on the subject. But what about the possibility of deflation? People have been warning about both inflation and deflation for the last several years. The only thing I’ve been confident about is that we’re unlikely to have both at the same time.
I recently came across a video of Cathie Wood speaking on the subject of deflation. For those who don’t know, Cathie is the investor who gained great fame in 2020 for having been heavily concentrated in the FAANGs, Tesla and other tech stocks, which vastly outperformed the rest of the stock market (in 2020, the average return on five of her seven ETFs was 141%). In the video, Cathie says:
We’ve been saying for some time that the risk to the economy is more on the side of deflation than inflation. So, as Covid created all the destruction that it did and with supply chains really being thrown off, we’ve been through a period here of inflation which I think investors are baking into the cake. . . .
….I was in college [during the 1970s], when inflation was raging, so I know what that is, and I truly believe we are not going back there, and that anyone planning for it is probably going to be making some mistakes. . .
On the innovation side, technologically enabled innovation – we are in a period today like we have never been. Never! I mean you have to go back to the telephone, electricity and the automobile to see three major technologically enabled sources of innovation evolving at the same time. Today we have five platforms: DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, all of which are deflationary, and not just by a little bit, either.
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MiPiace wrote:
Inflation/Deflation
I’ve written extensively on the subject of inflation of late, especially in Thinking About Macro four months ago. Since our knowledge of the future is so limited, there’s little for me to add on the subject. But what about the possibility of deflation? People have been warning about both inflation and deflation for the last several years. The only thing I’ve been confident about is that we’re unlikely to have both at the same time.
美國從來沒有什麼deflation 過。
什麼deflation ? 每年的工資都在漲，哪來的deflation ?
真正的通膨不在物價之中，而在收入之中。
麵線五十年前，和現在有何不同？價錢不同而已。
食衣住行，絕大多數的東西，不會有什麼太大的不同。
那些每年發佈的CPI都是沒用的東西，看中位數工資的變化，
才是最準的通膨指數。
個人積分：14850分
文章編號：83728817
