sb203041 wrote:
真的很累！搞半天！十...(恕刪)
呵呵！十月績效又轉正了，小孩有奶喝了！
個人積分：25分
文章編號：52767497
個人積分：9分
文章編號：52782207
個人積分：1分
文章編號：52787255
今天偶然看到這篇文章, 雖然已是三年前的了, 對於相關物聯網廠商在產業中的定位方式倒是值得參考;
可惜的是, 台廠似乎只看到Advantech一家
想請問各位大大的是, 大華這幾年的努力下來, 是否有讓他的產業定位提升了呢?
物聯網產業生態之新思維
一、物聯網高附加價值往應用服務端集中
物聯網產業鏈由底層元件至靠近消費者的應用端，依IBM定義約可分為八大環節，愈底層的元件其共通性愈高，產品的標準化也愈高，甚至可共用於各種不同的應用之中，而產品一旦共通或標準化之後，產品競爭激烈，所能產生的附加價值自然下降。而愈往上靠近應用層的部分，由於需依據不同客戶的需求，提出不同的系統規劃，可重複複製的機率降低，因此衍生的附加價值自然較高。
以一個城市的智慧交通監控系統為例，底層元件可能包括車流量感測器裏的壓力感測器、MCU、無線通訊元件，或是攝影機裏的影像感測器、DSP及記憶體等，這些元件在不同應用之共通性高，競爭廠商之產品也眾多，價格競爭之下造成毛利下降。若是價低量大的情形，廠商尚能採以量制價的策略稍稍獲得利益，但在廠商技術不斷突破之下，元件的需求數量也會慢慢減少，例如中國大陸太湖的監控系統，過去需要置入水質感測器、氧氣感測器、…等等不同之感測器裝置，如今在功能整合之下，整個太湖的監控系統所需的感測器模組數量大幅減少。因此，底層元件端廠商正面臨價量皆萎縮的窘困狀況。
反之，終端的系統整合服務供應商則擁有較高之附加價值，由於每個客戶對物聯網服務所能提供的預期效益皆有不同的期待，甚至不同客戶皆有其不同之背景環境，因此相同的應用在不同的客戶要求之下，終端服務供應商必需提供客製化的服務設計。另外，物聯網的服務效益要能顯現，各環節的整合必需具備極高的系統化知識，換言之其必需掌握不同領域的核心能力。因此，終端系統服務供應商在物聯網產業鏈環節中佔有較高附加價值之戰略地位。
二、全球物聯網廠商定位與規模
圖一為目前全球發展物聯網的主要公司規模與定位，縱軸代表該公司含蓋的產品範圍，愈往下表示該公司只著重在底層元件的開發，愈往上則表示該公司的產品愈靠近終端的應用服務。橫縱則代表該公司業務含蓋的銷售區域，愈往右表示該公司已涉足全球市場，愈往左則表示該公司以本國市場為主。至於圓圈大小則表示該公司之營業規模。
因此，由圖一可發現廠商營業額的規模要有所成長，除了跨足全球市場之外，產品定位也具有很大的影響關鍵，若能跳脫單純底層元件供應商的角色，進而朝應用服務商定位，就算銷售區域未能達到全球市場，營收的規模也會比同樣銷售區域的元件供應商來得大。這樣的趨勢也使得大部分廠商皆想盡辨法往系統端靠攏，本身具有準系統整合能量的廠商，即直接兼扮系統服務供應商之角色，最明顯的例子即為電信營運商，若電信營運商單純扮演提供電信網路的角色，其營收來源將侷限在資料數據的流量費用，對其營收的貢獻有限，因此全球的電信營運商皆朝應用服務商的定位進軍物聯網市場。
圖一
三、台灣廠商集中於產業鏈前端之底層元件製造
台灣電子產業過去的發展軌跡一直是以產品的製造能力作為競爭優勢，此處所指的製造能力，除了產品品質良率保證之外，絕大部分的優勢其實是來自於低廉價格的競爭力，因此形成台灣電子產業一昧追求低成本製造的血汗工廠，及低毛利的產業環境。這樣的營運模式在過去電子終端產品市場快速且大幅度成長的時空之下，的確也能為台灣電子產業帶來源源不絕的獲利與成長動能。因此，各家廠商無不專注於自家產品之成本下降，以期在產品成長日益萎縮的市場狀況下，仍能維持營運競爭力。
台灣廠商習以單一產品製造優勢營運的模式，對於進入物聯網商機將面臨新的挑戰，如圖二所示，物聯網不是一個產品，而是個很發散的產業，過去台灣產業是做產品，但在物聯網不是做一個產品，是做一堆產品構成的服務，這種模式不是台灣廠商過去習慣之方式。硬體廠商如果不知道最終端需求的話，並不知道物聯網要如何達到最大效益，而且若從零組件出發去看物聯網，將不容易看清楚物聯網的意含，也不易獲得物聯網的最大商機。
圖二 台灣物聯網產業鏈
四、結論
總而言之，台灣切入物聯網產業商機的思維要有所改變，必需揚棄過去一向以製造為優先的策略，以及個別廠商以單一產品單打獨鬥的方式，必竟物聯網最難不在技術，而在整合過程中是跨產業的，台灣很少有公司可以確實做好完整的整合，因此，台灣若能把握即有製造及產品的優勢，朝系統整合與服務提供的方向邁進，物聯網將是台灣電子產業最佳的轉型契機。
個人積分：25分
文章編號：52787964
看來要學的東西真的很多！
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文章編號：52810432
已知的
QCOM
毛利60.65%
營益率31.24%
年營收成長率9%
PSR=4.78
聯發科
毛利49.55%
營益率23.57%
年營收成長率63%
PSR=3.1
Summary
QCOM has dropped 9.2% since April. At the same time, the technology sector (XLK) has grown by 7.2%. A differential in the QCOM/XLK pair equal of 16.4%.
The negativity has been primarily due to [resolvable] concerns at Qualcomm's royalty-dependent QTL division - smartphone vendors in China allegedly under-reporting unit sales.
With solid fundamentals (clean balance sheet, $32 billion cash, market growth, healthy ROE) and China issues likely priced in, QCOM presents a solid value opportunity to buy into the pullback.
Here's an interesting insight: In December 2009, another tech company called Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was trading at 22x net earnings. Today it trades at around 16x earnings. While P/E is by no means the ideal standard for measuring value, it is fair to say if Apple traded at a P/E ratio of 22 at some point in the last 5 years, there is every chance it would do so again in the future - a reasonable justification for significant upside in Apple stock longer term. Interestingly, at 22x earnings Apple should be trading at $140.
Looking at similar stats for QCOM, in the same month/year, QCOM was trading at an incredible 49x net earnings. Currently, like AAPL, it trades at a more sobering 16x earnings. Similar multiples can be found across all key value ratio's (such as price/book, price/free-cash-flow, etc), providing strong value and longer term upside for Qualcomm.
Focusing on the most recent fundamental screen data, there is nothing unfavorable to write here - all metrics remained robust in the last quarter. Sales were up 9% (YoY), net earnings up an impressive 41.6% in the same period, operating ROE grew steadily from 18.86% to 20.45%, gross margin remained consistent at around 60%, while operating margin improved from 29.39% to 31.24%. A clean balance sheet continues to exhibit virtually zero debt. Moreover, cash-and-equivalents accounted for over $32 billion (equating to approximately $19/share).
(click to enlarge)
QCOM - Qualcomm Fundamental Stock Screener Data
So, all things being equal, the 16.4% post-April negative spread between QCOM and the sector (NYSEARCA:XLK), has been the price paid for the elephant-in-the-room - the QTL wireless division (which relies on royalties, and forms a slice of overall revenue) vs China allegedly under-reporting royalty-based unit sales. If this has been priced in, as the negative spread implies, what remains is a continuing solid business with compelling value and growth fundamentals (and no debt) in a global market where China is one part (albeit a crucial part) of the overall growth picture.
While the China royalty-issues may require (as these situations always do) men/women skilled in the fine art of diplomacy - it is important to briefly review Qualcomm's business model. The company invents, develops, and patents 3G and 4G innovations. The company then licenses this knowledge to other businesses allowing them to manufacture 3G/4G parts for devices, thus effectively freeing Qualcomm to continue developing and licensing future innovations. It works. Brilliantly. Additionally, the companies that use Qualcomm's intellectual property (in China I believe there are around 90, although I do not have verification on this) are then able to compete in this global industry. In return, Qualcomm rightfully earns a royalty for the IP...
Realize then that - focusing on the bigger picture - China would not be able to participate in the 3G/4G industry without Qualcomm. One does need the other - and what is being played out is more than likely political arrogance versus reasonable resolve.
As it stands, China may be playing its hand in trying to negotiate some kind of special fee structure relating to the royalties that are due to Qualcomm, on the premise of blanket political 'anti-competitiveness' bias. In which case, Qualcomm could afford it (recall current cash & equivalents) as a one-off charge, and probably write this off as the price to pay for a more sustainable (albeit lower margin) China growth. Fines of around $1 Billion have been rumored, although it is anyone's guess. Nevertheless, no matter which way one looks at this, the fact is China needs 4G (and 3G) to stay in good stead globally, so there has to come a point where - from a somewhat optimistic standpoint (we have to make a reasoned opinion, albeit subjective) - it is in the best interests of both parties to resolve these issues. Soon.
As for the overall business structure and global markets - well I don't think any investor who knows the company could argue against Qualcomm knowing it's product and business. China is crucial to growth, but there is also, the rest of the planet to continue to serve - all unanimously advancing from 3G to 4G and beyond - and Qualcomm is, as has always been - at the cutting edge of this twenty-first century growth. It comes down to putting trust in Qualcomm management which has done a proven job steering this ship and winning meaningful market share by focus and innovation in its core fields of expertise.
While the share price may never reach the heady heights of 2009 where it traded at 49x earnings, or even 25x earnings in the not too distant past (March 2012), there is strong argument in favor of significant upside in the stock from here. The China scenario is most likely priced in (note the 16.4% spread between QCOM/XLK), and coming to an agreement out there will be the catalyst closing that 16% gap (a bonus). All other things remaining equal, I believe the stock price will continue to grow from here, presenting a timely opportunity to buy into the recent pullback.
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文章編號：52855924
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MoneyDJ新聞 2014-11-06 11:47:16 記者 新聞中心 報導
國際研究暨顧問機構Gartner表示，與物聯網(IoT)相關的處理、感測及通訊半導體元件，勢必成為整個半導體市場中成長最為快速的領域之一，預期2015年將成長36.2%，相較之下，整體市場規模僅擴大5.7%；處理功能將是物聯網半導體元件相關營收的最主要來源，2015年營收將達75.8億美元，而感測器成長力道將最為強勁，2015年將大幅成長47.5%。
處理功能相關半導體元件包括了微控制器及嵌入式處理器，感測半導體元件則涵蓋光學與非光學感測器。Gartner研究總監Alfonso Velosa表示，物聯網物件的數量將高達數十億，從軟體與服務到半導體元件，整個價值鏈都將因為這背後龐大需求而受惠；物聯網中的物件將帶動市場對獨立晶片產生大量需求，物聯網半導體元件的成長力道將來自各種產業，遍及消費、工業、醫療、汽車等領域。
Gartner並預測了半導體營收最為看好的15種物聯網物件，其中幾項有趣的趨勢，包括在2020年以前，汽車業將在物聯網半導體需求方面持續扮演要角，在15種半導體營收最高的物聯網物件當中，就有6個來自汽車相關產業部門；LED照明將以量取勝，可透過連結、串聯與感測四周環境的功能，同時降低成本並實現新型態服務。
另外，還包括想提升生活品質的消費者，亦將於帶動物聯網需求成長的過程中扮演關鍵角色，這也會連帶創造更多半導體需求；以及隨著穿戴式裝置逐漸成為消費者日常生活中的一部份，智慧眼鏡與智慧手錶也將受惠物料清單成本上揚的趨勢，並會帶動相關需求。對物聯網而言，節能向來是貨真價實的附加價值所在。
Gartner研究副總監Dean Freeman指出，根據Gartner預測，到2020年以前物聯網相關半導體營收將成長近30%，你所能想到的每個產業都將貢獻營收，主要由數量龐大的低成本元件所帶動。業界有些人認為，這股成長趨勢將帶動半導體產業轉型。不過，進一步調查發現，物聯網元件絕大多數屬於量化商品；其實低價元件才是物聯網最主要推手之一。
