個人積分：77分
文章編號：72939165
楼主不要看到几个马润在研究台湾地图就激动啊，了解一下整件事情的来龙去脉比较重要。仔细看看这次兵棋推演的结果，结果没有那么乐观啦。
标题
How Does the Next Great Power Conflict Play Out? Lessons from a Wargame
兵棋推演中得到的启示——下一次超级大国冲突是如何进行的？
摘要
The United States can win World War III, but it’s going to be ugly and it better end quick, or everyone starts looking for the nuclear trigger.
美国能打赢第三次世界大战，但是会付出惨重代价。美国最好快速结束这场战争，否则会面临核大战的风险。
That is the verdict of a Marine Corps War College wargame I organized that allowed students to fight a multiple great state conflict last week. To set the stage, the students were given an eight-year road-to-war, during which time Russia seized the Baltics and all of Ukraine. Consequently, the scenario starts with a surging Russia threatening Poland. Similar to 1939, Poland became the catalyst that finally focused NATO’s attention on the looming Russian threat, leading to a massing of both NATO and Russian forces on the new Eastern Front. China begins the scenario in the midst of a debt-related financial crisis and plans to use America’s distraction with Russia to grab Taiwan and focus popular discontent outward. And Kim Jong-un, ever the opportunist, decides that the time has arrived to unify the Korean peninsula under his rule. For purposes of the wargame, each of these events occurred simultaneously.
我上周在海军陆战队战争学院组织了一场兵棋推演，让学生们与多个强大的国家交战。为了设置战争情景，我给学生们铺垫了一个八年的战前局势变化，其间俄罗斯消灭了波罗的海和乌克兰的全部武装力量。最终，战争情景从俄罗斯准备侵入波兰开始。与1939年发生的情况类似，波兰成为了北约集中注意力应对逼近的俄罗斯威胁的催化剂，引发了新东部战线上北约和俄罗斯武装力量之间的大规模冲突。关于中国的战争情景从债务引发的经济危机中开始，中国计划在美国的注意力被俄罗斯吸引时收复台湾，并且利用战争向外转移人民群众的不满。至于金正恩这个机会主义者，他觉得统一并统治整个朝鲜半岛的时机来了。在本次兵棋推演中，所有这些事件被假设是同时发生的。
Investing for War 战争投入
The wargames were played by six student teams, or approximately five persons each. There were three red teams, representing Russia, China, and North Korea; combatting three blue teams representing Taiwan, Indo-Pacific Command (Korea conflict) and European Command. All of these teams were permitted to coordinate their activities both before the conflict and during. Interestingly, although it was not part of the original player organization the Blue side found it necessary to have a player take on the role of the Joint Staff, to better coordinate global activities.
兵棋推演由六组学生执行，每组约五人。其中三组红军，分别代表俄罗斯，中国，和朝鲜，对战三组代表台湾、印太司令部（朝鲜冲突）和欧洲司令部的蓝军。所有队伍都可以在冲突前和冲突期间协调他们的行动。有趣的是，蓝军方面发现设立一个专门的联合参谋部更有利于协调组织全球行动，虽然他们一开始并没有安排这个角色。
Prior to the wargame, the students were given a list of approximately 75 items they could invest in that would give them certain advantages during the game. Nearly everything was on the table, from buying an additional carrier or brigade combat team, to taking a shot at getting quantum computing technology to work. Each team was given $200 billion dollars to invest, with the Russians and Chinese being forced to split their funding. Every team invested heavily in hypersonic technology, cyber (offensive and defensive), space, and lasers. The U.S. team also invested a large sum in directed diplomacy. If they had not done so, Germany and two other NATO nations would not have shown up for the fight in Poland. Showing a deepening understanding of the crucial importance of logistics, both red and blue teams used their limited lasers to defend ports and major logistical centers.
兵棋推演开始前，学生们得到了一个可以投入战争中以获得相应的优势的清单，包含约75个项目。从购买额外的航母以及编组战斗群，到获得并应用量子计算机技术，几乎所有内容都在表（table，或者是指兵棋桌？）中。每个队伍都得到了2000亿美元的战争预算，其中俄罗斯和中国的经费必须强制分开使用。每一队都砸了一大笔钱在高超声速技术、网络战（攻防）、宇宙空间和激光武器上。美国队除此之外还花了一大笔钱在指导外交上，如果他们不这么做的话，德国和其他两个北约国家将不会在波兰参战。红队和蓝队都深深理解后勤的重要性，因此都使用了他们有限的激光武器来防御港口和主要后勤中心。
Because the benefits of quantum computing were so massive, the American team spent a huge amount of its investment capital in a failed bid for quantum dominance. In this case, quantum computing might resemble cold fusion — ten years away and always will be. Interestingly, no one wanted another carrier, while everyone invested heavily in artificial intelligence, attack submarines, and stealth squadrons. The U.S. team also invested in upgrading logistics infrastructure, which had a substantial positive impact on sustaining three global fights.
量子计算机所带来的潜在效益是非常大的，因此美国队投入了巨大的财力用于量子霸权的争夺，但是失败了。在这种情况下，量子计算可能类似于冷核聚变技术，距离实用化永远还有十年。有趣的是，没有人想要建造额外的航母，但每个人都重点投入预算在人工智能、攻击潜艇和隐形战机上。美国队还选择了升级后勤基础设施，这对（打赢）三场旷日持久的全球战争有重大的积极影响。
Early Strategic Decisions 早期战略决策
As there was not enough American combat power to fight and win three simultaneous major conflicts, hard strategic choices were unavoidable. The American team quickly decided that losing Taiwan was not an existential threat to the United States, and except for a token Marine Corps force, Taiwan was left to fend for itself on the ground while substantial American air and naval assets challenged China’s access. The U.S. players viewed Taiwan as an economy of force effort that would be reinforced with ground troops once the big fight (Russia) was won. In the meantime, Team America opted to defend Taiwan with air and naval power, which continuously plagued Chinese attempts to reinforce their troops on the island. Similarly, South Korea, while viewed as crucial to long-term U.S. security, was also responsible for its own defense, although the American 2nd and 25th Infantry Divisions arrived in force early-on, as did two regiments of American Marines. Still, the bulk of the fighting was left to South Korean forces.
由于美国武装力量不足以同时打赢三场大型战争，因此无法避免艰难的战略选择。美国队很快认为丢失台湾对美国来说并不是生死攸关的威胁，因此除了留下一支海军陆战队以外，就任台湾自行防守陆地方面了，与此同时空中和海上的美军力量对中国的登陆产生了巨大的挑战。美国队的玩家认为应该打赢大战（俄罗斯）后再增援台湾。在此期间美国队选择使用空中和海上力量防御台湾，这一选择持续阻碍了中国人对岛上部队的增援。类似的，韩国，尽管对美国长期国防安全非常重要，也得自行防守。虽然美国第2、第25步兵师和两支舰队早前已经到达战场，但主要的作战任务还是由韩国的武装力量负责。
Believing that China and North Korea had no military ambitions beyond their immediate objectives, the U.S. team adopted for a “Europe First” policy, similar to the strategic decisions the nation made during the Second World War. Consequently, eight American Army divisions, most of the Marine Corps, and significant air assets made their way to Europe. Interestingly, the U.S. team decided to send almost all of its naval assets to the Pacific, which made the GIUK gap vulnerable. The scenario allowed for a lengthy strategic build-up in Europe. But because the conflicts in the Pacific were more opportunist, they were mostly “come as you are” affairs.
美国队认为中国和朝鲜没有除了当前任务目标以外的军事野心，因此选择优先了欧洲优先策略，如同该国在二战中的决策一样。因此，美国的八个步兵师（大多数是海军陆战队）以及大量的空军部队都被部署到了欧洲。有意思的是，美国队决定把几乎所有海军部队都部署到太平洋，这导致了GIUK缺口存在风险（GIUK缺口是描述位于北大西洋海域上一处与海军作战有重大关系的海域。GIUK的缩写来自于格陵兰、冰岛和英国这三个地方，GIUK缺口就是指位于这三地之间的海域，通常是引用在军事相关的论述上）。这一情景使得美国在欧洲能进行长期的战略建设。但是发生在太平洋地区的冲突更多的是投机行为，因此更多的采用你来我往的事件应对方式。
What Happened When the Guns Started Firing? 战争开始时发生了什么？
The South Koreans had time to alert their border forces and begin moving troops up from the southern part of the country. But the North Koreans struck before these reinforcements were fully deployed. The original North Korean intent (as shown in the picture below) was to strike hard, bypass Seoul, and drive deep into South Korea.
韩国有时间去警告边防部队并且把军队从南方转移到北方。但是朝鲜在韩国的增援完全到达前就展开了进攻。朝鲜一开始的策略是快速突袭，绕过首尔，迅速深入韩国境内。
The North had some initial success in front of Seoul and managed to break through South Korean lines in the center. Fortunately, the North Koreans were unable to exploit this success before U.S. Marines and the Army’s 2nd and 25th Divisions, advancing from the south, built a second defensive line along the Bukhan River.
朝鲜一开始在首尔附近取得了一定的成功，并设法突破了韩国的中部防线。幸运的是，朝鲜未能在美国海军陆战队和第2、第25步兵师从南方出发并在北汉江建立第二道防线之前充分利用这一优势。
With the center offensive halted by American reinforcements, the North Koreans shifted the bulk of their assaults toward Seoul, which acted like a magnet upon any forces in the area. By now the North Koreans were behind schedule and congestion was slowing the build-up of North Korean combat power along the battle-line. To regain momentum, the Chinese committed their 79th and 80th Armies to the offensive (circled in red below). But with American forces supporting the South Koreans in front of Seoul and along the Bukhan River, the attack’s progress slowed. It is worth noting that much of the American success was due to huge amounts of sorties flown from bases in South Korea, Japan, and nearby carriers. However, when China entered the fight, the carriers were forced to pull back beyond DF-21 and DF-26 range.
在中部的进攻被美国增援挫败后，朝鲜把主要进攻转移到了首尔，首尔此时就像吸铁石一样吸引了周边所有部队。目前为止朝鲜部队都没能及时完成任务目标，沿着战线的军事力量建设也被阻碍了。为了扭转战局，中国派出了第79和第80军加入战斗。但是韩国在美国部队的支援下延缓了中朝对首尔和北汉江的攻势。值得一提的是，美军的大量战果都要归功于从韩国、日本和附近海域航母上起飞的空军部队。但是中国加入战斗后，所有航母都被迫撤出了DF-21和DF-26的攻击范围。
With South Korea under extreme pressure, the U.S. team shifted the 82nd Airborne Division from its reserve position in Warsaw, Poland to Seoul. After redeploying to the other side of the globe, the 82nd was immediately injected into the fight. This proved enough to stymie the Chinese offensive, at least temporarily.
由于韩国面临巨大的军事压力，美国队调动了后备的第82空降师到前线战场，即波兰和首尔。在被重新部署到地球的另一端后，第82空降师立即加入战斗。这一调动被证明至少能临时拖延中国的进攻。
In an attempt to get things moving again, the North Koreans resorted to chemical weapons. With no adequate conventional response to chemical strikes, which inflicted tens of thousands of military and civilian casualties, the INDOPACOM commander requested nuclear release authority.
为了重整旗鼓，朝鲜动用了化学武器。由于应对化学武器措施不足，成千上万的军队和平民伤亡，因此印太司令部指挥官申请了核武器使用权限。
In Taiwan, after a brief but spirited defense of the nation’s beaches, Taiwanese troops were forced, by a successful Chinese airborne assault that captured a port in their rear, to retreat into the nation’s mountainous interior.
台湾方面，在短暂的英勇滩头抵抗之后，中国空降部队成功占领了一个后方港口，台湾部队被迫撤入山区。
As the Chinese consolidated their beachheads, brought in heavier forces, and moved cautiously inland, the Taiwanese fell back on Taipei. Here they intended to launch local counter-attacks and hold at least a portion of the island until the United States came to their aid. The Chinese build-up was severely hampered by U.S. naval and air power, which, despite the retreat of the carriers, was able to inflict serious losses upon the Chinese invasion armada and damage their debarkation ports in Taiwan. On the ground, the resistance of the Taiwanese forces was stiffened by the insertion of Japanese forces into the line — a result of American investments in pre-war directed diplomacy and a Japan concerned that both Taiwan and the Republic of Korea might fall to China. The Chinese, unable to make headway in the rough terrain and suffering from numerous local counter-attacks, as well as drawn out clearing operations in urban areas, soon settled into static positions, while they awaited more combat power to arrive from the mainland.
中国部队巩固了滩头防御，登陆了重型装备，并谨慎地向内陆开进，台湾部队撤向了台北。他们想在此组织局部反击并设法守住至少一小部分岛屿，直到美国前来增援。中国部队的进展受到了美国海空军严重阻碍，尽管美国已经撤离了航母，但仍能够对中国的舰队和登陆点造成严重破坏。在地面方面，台湾部队的防御得到了日本军队的增援，这也是美国战前指导外交策略的成果，并且日本也担心台湾和韩国都落入中国囊中。中国部队无法在崎岖的山区继续前进，并遭到了多处局部抵抗，于此同时他们很快进入静止状态，在城市地区开展了长时间的肃清行动，并等待更多武装力量从大陆到来。
The fight in Poland was beyond brutal. By student estimates, the NATO forces lost over 60,000 men and women on the first day of the fight — shades of the Somme. The Poles, determined to hold as much of their national territory as possible, refused to fall back on the main NATO defense line and were severely handled. As the map below shows, U.S. Army divisions were initially set well back from the line as a counter-attacking force.
在波兰的战斗非常残酷。据学生估计，北约在第一天的战斗中便损失了60000人。波兰人决心尽可能守住他们的领土，拒绝撤回北约的主要防线，遭到了严重的牵制。下方地图显示，美国步兵师一开始就布下了完善的防线进行反击。
Despite the NATO commander’s best intent, it proved impossible to hold the American force together for one massive counter-strike. Due to unrelenting Russian pressure along the front, the American leadership was forced to disperse all its divisions to prop up wavering allies. Interestingly, this led to the third Battle of the Masurian Lakes or Tannenberg — the first being in 1410 and the second in 1914.
与北约指挥官的最佳预期不同，美国部队难以集中在一起进行大型的反击行动。由于俄军在战线上的压力十分强大，美国部队被迫分散支援风雨飘摇的盟军部队。有趣的是，这导致了第三次马苏里湖（坦嫩贝克）战役——第一次在1410年，第二次在1914年。
To stop the Russians, the NATO Commander was forced to employ 10th Mountain Division to prop up the battered Poles (white units on the map), while the 1st Cavalry and 1st Armored Divisions counter-attacked further south. The result was a bloodbath that left every Allied and Russia unit engaged gasping, with most suffering about 50 percent losses within a 72-hour period.
为了阻止俄军，北约指挥官被迫部署第10山地师以支援损失惨重的波兰部队，与此同时第一骑兵师和第一装甲师进一步向南反击。在72小时内，盟军部队和俄军损失惨重，最多的部队减员了约50%。
After days of hard fighting, NATO managed to stabilize its front, making it possible to pull several heavy divisions off the line and launch a devastating counter-attack on the Russian southern flank, while a marine expeditionary force trapped an entire Russian division in the north. At this point, intercepts of Russian communications indicated their commanders were asking for nuclear release.
数日的艰难战斗后，北约设法稳住了前线，从而有机会腾出数个重装师并对俄军南翼发起了毁灭性打击，一支海军陆战队远征部队在北方困住了一整个俄军师。此时，拦截到的俄军通讯显示他们的指挥官正请求动用核武器。
Observations and Lessons Learned 经验教训总结
The post-conflict after action review was informative and left the students with much to ponder. Before listing just a few of the lessons learned, it is important to note that they are the result of only two days of game play. Moreover, these games were designed to help the students think about future conflicts and operational art, and not for serious analytical work. Still, there were several observations that may point the services and Joint Staff toward areas that require more serious analysis.
冲突后的总结信息量很大，使学生陷入沉思。在列出几条经验教训前，有必要指出这仅仅是一个两天的推演游戏的结果。此外，设计这些游戏是为了让学生们思考未来冲突和战争艺术，并不是个严肃的分析研究。观察中也发现了一些当局和联合指挥部需要重点分析的地区。
The high rate of loss in modern conventional combat challenged student paradigms ingrained by nearly two decades of counter-insurgency operations. In just the first week of the war, U.S. forces and their allies suffered over 150,000 losses (World War I levels of attrition) from the fighting in Poland, Korea, and Taiwan. For students, who have spent their entire military lives viewing the loss of a squad or a platoon as a military catastrophe, this led to a lot of discussion about what it would take to lead and inspire a force that is burning through multiple brigades a day, as well as a lengthy discussion on how long such combat intensity could be sustained.
现代常规战争的高减员率挑战了学生们从近二十年的治安战行动中形成的思维定势。在战争开始的前一周，美国和盟军便在波兰、韩国和台湾的战斗中损失了150000的部队（一战级别的损耗）。对在整个军事生涯中视整班整排的损失为灾难的学生来说，这些结果引发了他们的思考，在这样一天损失几个旅的高烈度战争中，如何持久作战让他们讨论了良久。
Because of these huge battlefield losses and how long it would take to get National Guard and Reserves into the fight, the decision was made to strip these forces of most of their trained personnel and use their troops as replacements for battered active units.
由于这些大型战役损失惨重，并且调动增援的时间长，决定调动国民警卫队和预备役去补充受损的作战单位。
To ease the students into the complexity of this wargame, logistics was hugely simplified. Still, much of the post-game discussion focused on the impossibility of the U.S. military’s current infrastructure to support even half the forces in theater or to maintain the intensity of combat implied by the wargame as necessary to achieve victory.
为了降低兵棋推演的复杂度，后勤被大大简化了。此外，推演后的讨论主要认为美军当前的基础设施甚至无法支持参演部队的一半，也无法维持必要的战斗强度以达到最终的胜利。
Airpower, the few times it was available, was a decisive advantage on the battlefield. Unfortunately, the planes rarely showed up to assist the ground war, as they prioritized winning dominance of their own domain over any other task. Only when the Air Force had completed a multi-week campaign to take down the enemy’s Integrated Air Defense System( IADS) and win the air-battle, were they willing to assist the ground battle. In the Pacific, the unwillingness to risk carriers within the 900-mile range of Chinese DF-21s and 26s made them close to useless, unless they could operate under a land-based air defense umbrella.
空中力量为奠定战场优势起了决定性作用，但不幸的是飞机很难支援地面部队，因为他们的最优先任务是取得制空权。空军只有在数周的战役中摧毁敌人的综合防控系统并打赢空战后，才能对地面部队起到支援作用。在太平洋战场，为了防止航母损失而撤离到900英里以外以避免东风快递的打击，这使得空军几乎失去作用，除非能建立一个地面防空保护伞。
Neither America nor its allies had any adequate response to the use of chemical weapons by the enemy, short of requesting nuclear release. It is worth noting that every battle headed rapidly toward total war, as both sides commanders sought to escape restraints on what weapons they could employ within a theater. Every time a theater commander met with a military setback they requested authority to employ nuclear weapons
不论美军还是其盟友都未能适当处理敌军的化学武器，除了使用核武器的请求。值得指出的是，每一场战役都在迅速向全面战争发展，因为两方指挥官都想绕过推演武器使用限制。每次参演指挥官遭受军事挫折时都试图请求部署核武器的权限。
Neither U.S. forces nor allied forces had an answer to counter the overpowering impact of huge enemy fire complexes, which accounted for most American and allied losses.
美国及其盟军部队都没能找到对抗过于强大的敌军火力覆盖的方案，这导致了绝大部分美军和盟军部队的减员。
Cyber advantages always proved fleeting. Moreover, any cyberattack launched on its own was close to useless. On the other hand, targeted cyber attacks combined with maneuver forces always proved to be a deadly combination.
网络战优势总是迅速消逝，任何独自发起的网络攻击都几乎没有作用。另一方面讲，针对性的网络攻击与机动部队的结合是一股致命的力量。
When NATO is all-in, it can put a huge effective force in the field. But it is important to remember that NATO was only all-in because the students took a huge amount of their investment budget and applied it to directed diplomacy, aimed at rebuilding frayed alliances. Still, the Russian occupation of Ukraine, the Baltics, and Belarus did a lot to focus the attention of NATO allies on the looming threat.
当北约全面参战时，能对战场局势造成巨大的影响。但必须指出北约之所以全面参战是因为学生们花费了巨大的资金用于指导外交，以重建涣散的盟军力量。此外，俄罗斯占领乌克兰，波罗的海和白俄罗斯也对吸引北约的注意力起了作用。
In Korea, the allies must hold for approximately 10 days before the North Korean logistics system collapses. It’s important to note, however, that the fighting remains brutal even after North Korea’s logistics system collapses. Moreover, the restrictive terrain and density of forces leads to particularly intense combat.
在韩国，盟军必须坚持十天直到朝鲜后勤崩溃。重要的是，即使朝鲜后勤崩溃后，战斗也十分惨烈。此外有限的区域和军队的高密度导致了尤其激烈的战斗。
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330tomy wrote:
無良綠黨.竟還有涉世未深者.跟著起瘋...台灣小地方.國防靠和平.非把自己家園當戰場~
安內、攘外都重要
不要把問題都怪在內部，外敵要殺入，是沒有理由的
但是打杖要不要花錢?
不戰而屈是兵家最高指導原則
老共現在就是等台灣亂到一個程度，再來揀便宜
戰爭沒打嗎?早就開始
那些五毛就是馬前卒，一堆人還跟著起亂
綠蛆、藍狗整天對罵，真是不知死活
你認為的那個國民黨治理的那個美好年代，你以為都天下太平嗎?
反共口號下，解放軍沒有虎視耽耽?
你以為繞島是這幾年才有?
那你把國軍放在哪裡
國民黨時代，空軍更常半夜緊急升空
外島三不五時發現紅點(米格機)緊急戰備
水鬼每天摸哨
這還是30年前的事
沒有這些國軍24小時繃緊神經，能換來台灣的安定，股市狂飆?
那個美好年代，你在台灣當時在做什麼?
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