少子化對於補教業是正面還是負面影響?!
常常在討論兒美補習班加盟的貼文底下看到類似的留言,
或是當面被詢問:
「但現在不是少子化嗎?為什麼還要開補習班?」
「少子化小孩不是越來越少嗎?補習班還能做嗎?」
也有一些比較偏激的言語,
大概就是韭菜、無腦之類的發言...
我有兩個想法來思考這個題目,
也邀請有興趣的人一起分享討論!
【我想以「兒童美語補習班」來做主軸】
一、少子化沒錯,但有少補習化嗎?
這題我認為跟「趨勢」有關
包含2030雙語政策,108課綱,年輕一代的父母思維,
多元入學的選擇,考試不代表一切的風氣...等
以前的孩子多,但家長願意送去補習的多嗎?
稍微查了2009和2023年統計,會去補習班的孩子都大約佔7成
就以人口數來說,以前會去補習班的孩子確實比例高
但以前的孩子多數比例會去「升學、考試」為導向的補習班,
比如數學太爛去補數學、國文太爛去補國文、要升國一去補先修班....;
現在則有較多家長會送孩子去「注重學習經驗、重視品格、體驗」的補習班,
甚至是才藝安親班,升學考試為導向的在國中高中可能還是主流,
但在「小學」的市場則相反。
加上現在小家庭、雙薪家庭較多,安親班、補習班是剛需;
以前可能回家還有家人顧。
(而線上教學的部分,是另一個客群。)
單就兒童美語補習班來說,我認為是成長的。
二、少子化沒錯,但有少到會影響補教嗎?
這題我想跟「市場規模和市場競爭」有關
統計了一下2023年,台灣有大概762間國小超過600人,
具體是:
600人 280所
900人 170所
1200人 209所
1800人 99所
3000人 4所
以600人算就好,每間7成去補習(城鄉比例不同),大概有420人
台灣比較大品牌的兒美補習班假設有10個品牌,
加上各品牌都有學區保護機制(一品牌一學區只開一間),每間平均能分到42人,
是有機會「每間」都活下來的!
以安親加上美語課程,42人每個月可能有35-40萬左右的營收,
扣掉主要支出:人事、房租、攤提,盈餘其實也不少。
反之,餐飲的規模很大,但競爭也很激烈,
市場瓜分下來勢必會更偏向零和遊戲,不是大者恆大就是苟延殘喘...
小結論:
努力經營,以讓自己的補習班學生能達到某個人數(損益兩平)為目標,
其實做補習班的風險是相對小的,因為用戶的LTV算穩定也好掌握。
就算十年後學生再少一半,
也強過有些產業加盟後能不能撐三年都是問題。
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