❌【柳葉刀子刊】1970以來，3800萬人死於美國與歐洲經濟制裁❌

2025/8月

【The Lancet Global Health】Effects of international sanctions on age-specific mortality: a cross-national panel data analysis

【柳葉刀子刊】國際制裁對特定年齡層死亡率的影響：跨國縱橫數據分析

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(25)00189-5/fulltext

▲▲▲一堆推導公式，有閱讀門檻...... sorry

2025/09/03

【Aljazeera】US and EU sanctions have killed 38 million people since 1970

【半島電視台】美國與歐盟的制裁自1970年以來已造成3800萬人死亡

https://ppt.cc/fIhD0x

The United States and Europe have long used unilateral sanctions as a tool of imperial power, to discipline and even destroy Global South governments that seek to shake off Western domination, chart an independent path, and establish any kind of meaningful sovereignty.
美國與歐洲長期以來一直將單邊制裁作為帝國權力的工具，用以懲戒甚至摧毀那些試圖擺脫西方支配、走上獨立道路並建立真正主權的全球南方國家政府。

During the 1970s, there were, on average, about 15 countries under Western unilateral sanctions in any given year. In many cases, these sanctions sought to strangle access to finance and international trade, destabilise industries, and inflame crises to provoke state collapse.
在1970年代，每年平均有大約15個國家受到西方的單邊制裁。在許多情況下，這些制裁旨在扼殺金融和國際貿易的渠道，使產業不穩定，並加劇危機以促使國家崩潰。

For instance, when the popular socialist Salvador Allende was elected to power in Chile in 1970, the US government imposed brutal sanctions on the country. At a September 1970 meeting at the White House, US President Richard Nixon explained the objective was to “make [Chile’s] economy scream”. The historian Peter Kornbluh describes the sanctions as an “invisible blockade” that cut Chile off from international finance, created social unrest, and paved the way for the US-backed coup that installed the brutal right-wing dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.
例如，當受歡迎的社會主義者薩爾瓦多·阿連德於1970年在智利當選執政時，美國政府對該國實施了殘酷的制裁。在1970年9月的一次白宮會議上，美國總統理查·尼克森解釋說，目標是讓智利的「經濟哀號」。歷史學家彼得·科恩布盧將這些制裁描述為一種「無形的封鎖」，它切斷了智利與國際金融的聯繫，製造了社會動盪，並為美國支持的政變鋪平了道路，該政變最終建立了奧古斯托·皮諾切特的殘酷右翼獨裁統治。

Since then, the US and Europe have dramatically increased their use of sanctions. During the 1990s and 2000s, an average of 30 countries were under Western unilateral sanctions in any given year. And now, as of the 2020s, it is more than 60 – a strikingly high proportion of the countries of the Global South.
自那時以來，美國與歐洲大幅增加了對制裁的使用。在1990年代和2000年代，每年平均有30個國家受到西方的單邊制裁。而如今，到2020年代，這一數字已超過60個，這是全球南方國家中驚人之高的比例。

Sanctions often have a huge human toll. Scholars have demonstrated this in several well-known cases, such as the US sanctions against Iraq in the 1990s that led to widespread malnutrition, lack of clean water, and shortages of medicine and electricity. More recently, US economic warfare against Venezuela has resulted in a severe economic crisis, with one study estimating that sanctions caused 40,000 excess deaths in just one year, from 2017 to 2018.
制裁往往造成巨大的生命代價。學者們在幾個著名案例中證明了這一點，例如美國在1990年代對伊拉克的制裁導致大規模營養不良、缺乏乾淨水源以及藥品和電力短缺。最近，美國對委內瑞拉的經濟戰爭造成了嚴重的經濟危機，有一項研究估計，在2017年至2018年的短短一年內，制裁導致了4萬起超額死亡。

Until now, researchers have sought to understand the human toll of sanctions on a case-by-case basis. This is difficult work and can only ever give us a partial picture. But that has changed with new research published this year in The Lancet Global Health, which gives us a global view for the first time. Led by the economist Francisco Rodriguez at the University of Denver, the study calculates the total number of excess deaths associated with international sanctions from 1970 to 2021.
直到現在，研究人員一直嘗試逐案理解制裁對人類生命的代價。這是一項艱難的工作，只能給我們提供部分的圖像。但今年發表在《柳葉刀·全球健康》上的一項新研究改變了這一點，它首次為我們提供了一個全球視角。這項研究由丹佛大學經濟學家弗朗西斯科·羅德里格斯主導，計算了1970年至2021年間與國際制裁相關的超額死亡總數。

The results are staggering. In their central estimate, the authors find that unilateral sanctions imposed by the US and EU since 1970 are associated with 38 million deaths. In some years, during the 1990s, more than a million people were killed. In 2021, the most recent year of data, sanctions caused more than 800,000 deaths.
結果令人震驚。根據他們的核心估算，作者發現自1970年以來，美國和歐盟實施的單邊制裁與3800萬人死亡有關。在1990年代的某些年份，死亡人數超過一百萬。在最近的數據年份2021年，制裁造成了超過80萬人死亡。

According to these results, several times more people are killed by sanctions each year than are killed as direct casualties of war (on average, about 100,000 people per year). More than half of the victims are children and the elderly, people who are most vulnerable to malnutrition. The study finds that, since 2012 alone, sanctions have killed more than one million children.
根據這些結果，每年因制裁而死亡的人數是戰爭直接傷亡人數的幾倍（平均每年約10萬人）。受害者中有超過一半是兒童和老人，即最容易受到營養不良影響的人群。研究發現，僅自2012年以來，制裁就已經造成超過一百萬兒童死亡。

Hunger and deprivation are not an accidental by-product of Western sanctions; they are a key objective. This is clear from a State Department memo written in April 1960, which explains the purpose of US sanctions against Cuba. The memo noted that Fidel Castro – and the revolution more broadly – enjoyed widespread popularity in Cuba. It argued that “every possible means should be undertaken promptly to weaken the economic life of Cuba,” by “denying money and supplies to Cuba, to decrease monetary and real wages, to bring about hunger, desperation and overthrow of government”.
飢餓與貧困並非西方制裁的意外副產品；它們是關鍵目標。這一點從1960年4月美國國務院的一份備忘錄中可以清楚看到，該備忘錄解釋了美國對古巴制裁的目的。備忘錄指出，菲德爾·卡斯特羅——以及更廣泛的革命——在古巴享有廣泛的支持。它主張應「立即採取一切可能的手段削弱古巴的經濟生活」，通過「剝奪古巴的資金和物資，降低貨幣和實際工資，造成飢餓、絕望並推翻政府」。

The power of Western sanctions hinges on their control over the world’s reserve currencies (the US dollar and the Euro), their control over international payment systems (SWIFT), and their monopoly over essential technologies (eg satellites, cloud computation, software). If countries in the Global South wish to chart a more independent path towards a multipolar world, they will need to take steps to limit their dependence in these respects and thus insulate themselves from backlash. The recent experience of Russia shows that such an approach can succeed.
西方制裁的力量依賴於它們對世界儲備貨幣（美元與歐元）的控制、對國際支付系統（SWIFT）的控制，以及對關鍵技術（如衛星、雲端運算、軟體）的壟斷。如果全球南方國家希望在邁向多極化世界的道路上更加獨立，它們需要在這些方面採取措施以減少依賴，從而使自己免受反噬。俄羅斯最近的經驗表明，這樣的做法是可行的。

Governments can achieve greater independence by building South-South trade and swap lines outside the core currencies, using regional planning to develop necessary technologies, and establishing new payment systems outside Western control. Indeed, several countries are already taking steps in this direction. Importantly, new systems that have been developed in China (eg CIPS for international payments, BeiDou for satellites, Huawei for telecom) now provide other global South countries alternative options that can become a pathway out of Western dependence and the sanctions net.
各國政府可以通過在核心貨幣之外建立南南貿易與交換渠道、利用區域規劃開發必要的技術、以及建立不受西方控制的新支付系統，來實現更大的獨立性。事實上，已有數個國家正在朝這個方向邁進。重要的是，中國已開發的新系統（如用於國際支付的CIPS、用於衛星的北斗、以及華為的電信技術）現在為其他全球南方國家提供了替代選擇，這可能成為擺脫西方依賴與制裁網的途徑。

These steps are necessary for countries that wish to achieve sovereign development, but they are also a moral imperative. We cannot accept a world where half a million people are killed each year to prop up Western hegemony. An international order that relies on this kind of violence must be dismantled and replaced.
這些舉措對於希望實現主權發展的國家來說是必要的，但它們同時也是道德上的責任。
我們不能接受一個每年有五十萬人被殺來支撐西方霸權的世界。依賴這種暴力的國際秩序必須被拆解並取而代之。

2025/09/09

The staggering death toll of Western sanctions

西方制裁造成的驚人死亡人數

https://jasonhickel.substack.com/p/the-staggering-death-toll-of-western
❌【柳葉刀子刊】1970以來，3800萬人死於美國與歐洲經濟制裁❌

Deaths due to US and EU sanctions, 1970-2021
Sanctions imposed unilaterally by the US and EU are associated with a total of 38 million deaths since 1970.

因美國和歐盟制裁而造成的死亡，1970–2021
自1970年以來，美國和歐盟單方面實施的制裁與總計3800萬人死亡相關。

2025-09-13 10:08 #1

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2025/08/08

【Financial Times】Sanctions can kill as many people as wars

【英媒：金融時報】制裁可能造成的死亡人數與戰爭相當

https://www.ft.com/content/99206b73-92c4-41f1-9677-d4a1e6fc78b1

Economic coercion doesn’t receive as much attention as military conflict — but it can be just as deadly
經濟脅迫不像軍事衝突那樣受到關注，但它可能同樣致命

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and a professor at the University of Denver.
作者是經濟與政策研究中心（Center for Economic and Policy Research）的高級研究員，並任教於丹佛大學。

Amir Hossein Naroi was an Iranian boy afflicted with thalassaemia, an inherited blood disease that is treatable with transfusions and drugs that reduce toxic concentrations of iron. These drugs are produced by Novartis, a Swiss-American company, which stopped shipping them to Iran after US President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions in May 2018. Four years later, Naroi died at the age of 10 due to complications caused by his lack of treatment. Naroi is one of nearly 150 patients that have died annually of the disease in Iran, where it is prevalent due to genetic factors, compared to fewer than 40 a year prior to the reimposition of sanctions.
阿米爾·侯賽因·納羅伊（Amir Hossein Naroi）是一名伊朗男孩，患有地中海貧血症——一種可透過輸血和降低鐵毒性的藥物治療的遺傳性血液疾病。這些藥物由瑞士-美國公司諾華（Novartis）生產，但在2018年5月美國總統川普重新對伊朗實施制裁後停止運送。四年後，納羅伊因缺乏治療引發的併發症而在10歲時去世。納羅伊是伊朗每年因該病死亡的近150名患者之一，而在重新制裁之前，每年不到40人死亡。

Similar examples abound. Humanitarian agencies in Venezuela had their US bank accounts closed shortly after the US imposed oil sanctions on the country in 2019, hampering efforts to deliver food assistance to vulnerable people. Efforts to assist victims of the 2023 earthquake in Syria were hampered when banks refused to process donations for fear of being found in violation of US sanctions. A 2023 WHO-sponsored review found consistent adverse effects of sanctions on health and health systems in low and middle income countries.
類似的例子不勝枚舉。2019年美國對委內瑞拉實施石油制裁後不久，該國的人道援助機構的美國銀行帳戶被關閉，阻礙了向弱勢群體提供食物援助的努力。2023年敘利亞地震受災者的救助工作也因銀行拒絕處理捐款而受阻，銀行擔心因此違反美國制裁。2023年由世界衛生組織（WHO）贊助的評估發現，制裁對低收入和中等收入國家的健康及衛生系統產生了持續的不利影響。

Proponents of sanctions often dismiss these findings as inconclusive. Correlation does not imply causation, they argue. Mismanagement and corruption of governments under sanctions are frequently blamed as the primary culprits of socio-economic collapse. US government officials routinely claim that sanctions include humanitarian exceptions, and typically refer to any humanitarian consequences of sanctions policies as “unintended” and resulting from “overcompliance” by financial institutions and other economic actors.
制裁的支持者常常將這些發現視為不具結論性。他們主張，相關性並不等於因果關係。
受制裁的政府經常被指責為社會經濟崩潰的主要原因，歸咎於管理不善與貪腐。美國官員則一貫聲稱，制裁包含人道例外，並通常將制裁政策的任何人道後果稱為「非預期」，是金融機構和其他經濟行為者「過度遵守」造成的。

In an article published this month in The Lancet Global Health with my co-authors Silvio Rendón and Mark Weisbrot, we address these claims by analysing the causal effect of international sanctions on age-specific mortality rates in a panel dataset of sanctions episodes for 152 countries between 1971 and 2021. We applied a battery of econometric methods specifically designed to identify causal effects from observational data.
本月，我與共同作者西爾維奧·倫登（Silvio Rendón）及馬克·韋斯布羅特（Mark Weisbrot）在《柳葉刀·全球健康》上發表文章，針對這些論點進行回應，我們分析了1971年至2021年間152個國家制裁事件的面板數據，以探討國際制裁對不同年齡層死亡率的因果影響。我們應用了一系列專門設計用於從觀察性數據識別因果效應的計量經濟方法。

We found robust evidence of a significant causal association between sanctions and increased mortality across most age groups, with particularly pronounced effects for infants and young children. Being subjected to sanctions, for example, leads to an estimated 8 per cent increase in the mortality rate of children under five in the affected countries. We used this framework to quantify the number of deaths attributable to sanctions in targeted countries. We estimate that, over the past decade, sanctions were associated with approximately 564,000 excess deaths annually. This death toll is comparable to current estimates of civilian and battle deaths from armed conflict during those years.
我們發現，制裁與大多數年齡層死亡率上升之間存在顯著的因果關聯，尤其對嬰兒和幼兒的影響尤為明顯。例如，受制裁影響的國家，五歲以下兒童的死亡率估計增加了約8%。我們利用這個框架量化了目標國家中可歸因於制裁的死亡人數。我們估計，在過去十年間，制裁每年造成大約 564,000 起超額死亡。這一死亡人數與同期因武裝衝突的平民和戰鬥死亡估計數相當。

The deadliest sanctions are those imposed outside the multilateral UN framework — and particularly those imposed by the US. One possible explanation is that US sanctions often explicitly aim to cause a deterioration in living standards in target countries under the assumption that worsening socio-economic conditions will cause regime change. The use of so-called “smart sanctions” that target specific wrongdoers rather than entire populations often replicate the effects of comprehensive sanctions by focusing on central banks and state-owned enterprises that play vital roles in the functioning of the economy. These targeted sanctions can have effects — including excess deaths of civilians — nearly as damaging as those of less targeted measures.

最致命的制裁是那些在聯合國多邊框架之外實施的制裁，尤其是美國實施的制裁。

可能的原因之一是，美國制裁往往明確旨在導致目標國家生活水準惡化，假設社會經濟狀況惡化將導致政權更迭。所謂的「智慧制裁」針對特定錯誤行為者而非整個人口，通常會通過集中於中央銀行和國有企業的方式，重現全面制裁的效果，因為這些機構在經濟運作中發揮關鍵作用。這些針對性的制裁可能產生幾乎與不那麼針對性的措施同樣嚴重的後果，包括平民的超額死亡。

Over the past few decades, the use of economic sanctions has expanded dramatically. The share of the global economy subject to unilateral sanctions grew from 5 per cent in the 1960s to 25 per cent between 2010 and 2022. Our findings suggest that these measures cause direct harm and many excess deaths. Indeed, it is difficult to think of any other policy instrument with such severe adverse effects on human life that is used so pervasively.
在過去幾十年中，經濟制裁的使用大幅擴張。受單邊制裁影響的全球經濟比例從1960年代的5%增長到2010至2022年的25%。我們的研究結果表明，這些措施會造成直接傷害和大量超額死亡。事實上，很難想像還有其他政策工具會對人類生命產生如此嚴重的不利影響，卻被如此廣泛使用。

Woodrow Wilson once described sanctions as “more tremendous than war”, a “silent, deadly remedy” that no nation would be able to withstand. He believed their sheer destructiveness would lead them to be used sparingly. A century later, the opposite has happened: sanctions have become a default weapon of statecraft, wielded routinely. But a policy that kills hundreds of thousands of civilians is neither peaceful nor defensible. It is an economic weapon of mass destruction — used by the very powers that claim to uphold global norms.
伍德羅·威爾遜曾形容制裁為「比戰爭更可怕」的「無聲致命的手段」，沒有任何國家能夠承受。他認為其毀滅性會導致制裁被謹慎使用。然而，一個世紀後，情況正好相反：制裁已成為國家政策的默認武器，並被例行使用。但一項政策如果導致數十萬平民死亡，既不和平也不可辯護。它是一種經濟型大規模殺傷性武器，由那些聲稱維護全球規範的強權使用。